Will a player seeded third or higher win the Men's Single Final at the 2024 French Open?

Started May 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 09, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The 2024 French Open will be the 127th, and whether past winner Rafael Nadal will participate was still to be determined as of 3 May 2024 (BBC, Sporting News). The tennis Grand Slam tournament is scheduled from 20 May 2024 to 9 June 2024, with the Men's Single Final scheduled for 9 June 2024 (French Open (Roland-Garros) - Tentative Schedule). For the purposes of this question, "third or higher" means first, second, or third.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 9 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 67%
No 33%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 143
Number of Forecasts 74
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 322
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.087573
3.
-0.062303
4.
-0.036497
5.
-0.034405

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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