Will a player seeded third or higher win the Men's Single Final at the 2024 French Open?

Started May 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 09, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The 2024 French Open will be the 127th, and whether past winner Rafael Nadal will participate was still to be determined as of 3 May 2024 (BBC, Sporting News). The tennis Grand Slam tournament is scheduled from 20 May 2024 to 9 June 2024, with the Men's Single Final scheduled for 9 June 2024 (French Open (Roland-Garros) - Tentative Schedule). For the purposes of this question, "third or higher" means first, second, or third.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 9 June 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 67%
No 33%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 143
Number of Forecasts 74
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 322
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username