Which US presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?

Started May 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The 2024 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (RealClearPolling, 270 to Win). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the state.

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The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The Democratic Party candidate 54%
The Republican Party candidate 46%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 130
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 441
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.597617
2.
-0.555696
3.
-0.530215
4.
-0.388883
5.
-0.378962

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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