Which organization's large language model (LLM) will be ranked first as of 16 May 2025, according to the Large Model Systems Organization (LMSYS Org)?
Closed May 16, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Technology companies and organizations are racing to develop the best performing chatbots (The Verge). The question will be suspended on 15 May 2025 and the outcome determined using the ranks as reported by LMSYS Org at approximately 5:00PM ET on 16 May 2025 (LMSYS, see "Rank* (UB)"). As of 8 May 2024, OpenAI was ranked first with its "GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09" model with an Arena Elo of 1258. For more information on how the leaderboard is constructed, see (LMSYS Blog). In the event of a tie for first place by LLMs of different organizations, the LLM with the higher Arena Elo score will be considered first, followed by the "Votes" total.
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The question closed "Google" with a closing date of 16 May 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 4% | |
| 54% | ||
| Meta | 1% | |
| OpenAI | 28% | |
| Another organization | 13% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 91 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 176 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 574 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 517 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
