French President Emmanuel Macron is facing an emboldened opposition as National Rally (Rassemblement National, or RN) climbs in the polls (Le Monde, Yahoo [Telegraph]). If early elections are scheduled for a date after 30 June 2025, the suspend date will be extended to the day before the second-round date in the elections scheduled. If RN secures a plurality (or majority) or it is mathematically impossible after the first round, the question will close as of the date of the first round of elections. The constitutional mechanism used to dissolve the National Assembly and call early elections is found in Article 12 of the Constitution of the Fifth Republic (French Constitution, Le Monde).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.