French President Emmanuel Macron is facing an emboldened opposition as National Rally (Rassemblement National, or RN) climbs in the polls (Le Monde, Yahoo [Telegraph]). If early elections are scheduled for a date after 30 June 2025, the suspend date will be extended to the day before the second-round date in the elections scheduled. If RN secures a plurality (or majority) or it is mathematically impossible after the first round, the question will close as of the date of the first round of elections. The constitutional mechanism used to dissolve the National Assembly and call early elections is found in Article 12 of the Constitution of the Fifth Republic (French Constitution, Le Monde).

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NOTE 12 June 2024: Electoral alliances set as of the date of the first round of the election (e.g., the New Popular Front Le Monde), rather than individual parties within an electoral alliance, count as to assessing whether RN wins the most seats. If RN forms an electoral alliance as of the date of the first round of the election, seats won by that alliance would count as to assessing whether RN wins the most seats.

The question closed "Yes, but RN will not win the most seats" with a closing date of 7 July 2024.

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