Will early elections for the French National Assembly (Assemblée Nationale) be called before 1 July 2025?

Started May 10, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 07, 2024 06:00PM UTC

French President Emmanuel Macron is facing an emboldened opposition as National Rally (Rassemblement National, or RN) climbs in the polls (Le Monde, Yahoo [Telegraph]). If early elections are scheduled for a date after 30 June 2025, the suspend date will be extended to the day before the second-round date in the elections scheduled. If RN secures a plurality (or majority) or it is mathematically impossible after the first round, the question will close as of the date of the first round of elections. The constitutional mechanism used to dissolve the National Assembly and call early elections is found in Article 12 of the Constitution of the Fifth Republic (French Constitution, Le Monde).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 12 June 2024: Electoral alliances set as of the date of the first round of the election (e.g., the New Popular Front Le Monde), rather than individual parties within an electoral alliance, count as to assessing whether RN wins the most seats. If RN forms an electoral alliance as of the date of the first round of the election, seats won by that alliance would count as to assessing whether RN wins the most seats.


The question closed "Yes, but RN will not win the most seats" with a closing date of 7 July 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and RN will win the most seats 83%
Yes, but RN will not win the most seats 16%
No 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 31
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 141
Number of Forecasts 107
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 319
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.572645
2.
-0.523867
3.
-0.381876
4.
-0.374409
5.
-0.324974

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username