Will the Kharkiv Regional State Administration building in Kharkiv, Ukraine, be under Russian control before 18 November 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Started May 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 18, 2024 08:01AM UTC

In May 2024, Russian forces began to push into the Kharkiv Oblast in the north of Ukraine (BBC, The Hill). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address is "Sumska St, 64, Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, 61002", to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. "Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine," "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours," and "Assessed Russian Control" will count, and "Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" is immaterial. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 18 November 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 208
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001215
2.
-0.001215
3.
-0.001215
4.
-0.001215

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username