Will Benny Gantz cease to be a member of the Israeli government before 11 June 2024?

Started May 20, 2024 02:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 09, 2024 05:50PM UTC

Benny Gantz joined the Israeli government in the wake of Hamas' attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, but he has threatened to quit the government if it doesn't adopt a new plan for Gaza "by June 8" (BBC, Axios, The National). Gantz need only leave the government, not the Knesset, to count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 9 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 40%
No 60%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 43
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 143
Number of Forecasts 92
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 322
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.91943
2.
-0.91943
3.
-0.85618
4.
-0.83943
5.
-0.82293

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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