How many seats will the Conservative Party win in the next UK general election?
Started
May 22, 2024 05:30PM UTC
Closed Jul 04, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Closed Jul 04, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
The next UK general election is scheduled to be held on 4 July 2024 (BBC, Guardian).
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The question closed "Fewer than 138 seats" with a closing date of 4 July 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 138 seats | 87% | |
| At least 138 seats, but fewer than 185 seats | 12% | |
| At least 185 seats, but fewer than 232 seats | 1% | |
| At least 232 seats, but fewer than 279 seats | 0% | |
| At least 279 seats, but fewer than 326 seats | 0% | |
| 326 seats or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 65 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 140 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 299 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 318 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
