Who will win the next Iranian presidential election?
Closing Aug 03, 2024 07:01AM UTC
With the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, an election for his replacement has been scheduled for 28 June 2024 (Al Arabiya, AP, Constitution of Iran, see Article 131). If no candidate wins an absolute majority, a runoff between the two candidates receiving the most votes would take place the following Friday (Constitution of Iran, see Article 117). The question will close early upon the election date (including a second round, as necessary) being rescheduled to a date after 2 August 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (former president) | 0.10% | -0.50% | -2.70% |
| Mehrdad Bazrpash (current cabinet minister) | 0% | -0.50% | -3.90% |
| Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, aka Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (current speaker of Iranian parliament) | 49.40% | +4.40% | +9.70% |
| Saeed Jalili (former nuclear negotiator) | 27.50% | 0% | +16.80% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei (son of Supreme Leader Khamenei) | 0.10% | -0.80% | -0.90% |
| Ali Larijani (former speaker of Iranian parliament) | 0% | -0.50% | -9.20% |
| Mohammad Mokhber (acting president) | 0% | -0.60% | -7.40% |
| Hassan Rouhani (former president) | 0.50% | -0.50% | -1.00% |
| Ali Akbar Salehi (former foreign minister) | 0% | -0.50% | -0.40% |
| Mohammad Javad Zarif (former foreign minister) | 0% | -0.50% | -1.60% |
| Another candidate | 21.10% | +0.80% | +0.60% |
| The election (including a second round, as necessary) will not be held before 3 August 2024 | 1.30% | -0.80% | 0% |