Who will win the next Iranian presidential election?

Started May 24, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 05, 2024 08:30PM UTC

With the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, an election for his replacement has been scheduled for 28 June 2024 (Al Arabiya, AP, Constitution of Iran, see Article 131). If no candidate wins an absolute majority, a runoff between the two candidates receiving the most votes would take place the following Friday (Constitution of Iran, see Article 117). The question will close early upon the election date (including a second round, as necessary) being rescheduled to a date after 2 August 2024.

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The question closed "Another candidate" with a closing date of 5 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (former president) 0%
Mehrdad Bazrpash (current cabinet minister) 0%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, aka Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (current speaker of Iranian parliament) 0%
Saeed Jalili (former nuclear negotiator) 58%
Mojtaba Khamenei (son of Supreme Leader Khamenei) 0%
Ali Larijani (former speaker of Iranian parliament) 0%
Mohammad Mokhber (acting president) 0%
Hassan Rouhani (former president) 0%
Ali Akbar Salehi (former foreign minister) 0%
Mohammad Javad Zarif (former foreign minister) 0%
Another candidate 42%
The election (including a second round, as necessary) will not be held before 3 August 2024 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 28
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 141
Number of Forecasts 168
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 319
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.721379
2.
-0.704612
3.
-0.357512
5.
-0.188507

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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