How many hectares (ha) will be consumed by wildfires in Canada in 2024?

Started May 29, 2024 01:30PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
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Canada had its worse wildfire season on record in 2023, and fires in 2024 are again impacting air quality in the US and Canada (CBS News, ABC News). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) in its "Canada Report" for 2024, expected in early 2025 (CIFFC - Annual Reports). In 2023, wildland fires consumed 17,203,625 hectares in Canada (CIFFC - Canada Report 2023, see page 17 of the file). A "hectare" is a metric unit of measure for area equivalent to 2.471 acres (Britannica - Hectare). Additional periodic data are available from CIFFC (CIFFC National Fire Situation Report).

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The question closed "At least 3.0 million, but less than 5.5 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 3.0 million 0%
At least 3.0 million, but less than 5.5 million 98%
At least 5.5 million, but less than 8.0 million 2%
At least 8.0 million, but less than 10.5 million 0%
At least 10.5 million, but less than 13.0 million 0%
At least 13.0 million, but less than 15.5 million 0%
At least 15.5 million, but less than 18.0 million 0%
18.0 million or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 28
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 290
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.064289
2.
-0.063614
3.
-0.033169
4.
-0.028304
5.
-0.027858

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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