How many hectares (ha) will be consumed by wildfires in Canada in 2024?

Started May 29, 2024 01:30PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

Canada had its worse wildfire season on record in 2023, and fires in 2024 are again impacting air quality in the US and Canada (CBS News, ABC News). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) in its "Canada Report" for 2024, expected in early 2025 (CIFFC - Annual Reports). In 2023, wildland fires consumed 17,203,625 hectares in Canada (CIFFC - Canada Report 2023, see page 17 of the file). A "hectare" is a metric unit of measure for area equivalent to 2.471 acres (Britannica - Hectare). Additional periodic data are available from CIFFC (CIFFC National Fire Situation Report).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Fewer than 3.0 million 28.80% -0.40% +3.40%
At least 3.0 million, but less than 5.5 million 44.90% +1.30% +6.30%
At least 5.5 million, but less than 8.0 million 14.50% -0.50% 0%
At least 8.0 million, but less than 10.5 million 6.90% -0.40% -1.60%
At least 10.5 million, but less than 13.0 million 2.50% 0% +0.40%
At least 13.0 million, but less than 15.5 million 1.20% 0% +0.50%
At least 15.5 million, but less than 18.0 million 0.70% 0% +0.50%
18.0 million or more 0.50% 0% -9.50%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username