Will Salva Kiir cease to be President of South Sudan before 1 December 2017?

Started Nov 15, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC

Salva Kiir has been president of South Sudan since the country became independent in July 2011 (BBC), but his government has been fighting a civil war against forces led by his former vice president, Riek Machar, since late 2013 (US Institute of Peace). In the event that Kiir reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJI will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Kiir returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
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Salva Kiir remains President of South Sudan. This question closed as “b) No,” with and end date of 1 December 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 175
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 682
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

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