The Economist asks
Before 1 October 2017, will Ban Ki-moon announce that he is running for president of South Korea?
Started
Nov 22, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 09, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 09, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Challenges
Ban Ki-moon, the UN’s outgoing secretary-general, is rumored to be considering a run for the presidency in South Korea's December 2017 election (The Diplomat). Saenuri, the party of President Park Geun-hye, seems eager to groom him as their next leader (The World in 2017, Bloomberg).
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If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether Chun-ying will win the March 2017 election for Chief Executive of Hong Kong.
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 9 May 2017. The planned December 2017 election has held early after President Park's impeachment. That election ended on 9 May 2017, and Ban Ki-moon did not participate as a candidate. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether Chun-ying will win the March 2017 election for Chief Executive of Hong Kong.
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 9 May 2017. The planned December 2017 election has held early after President Park's impeachment. That election ended on 9 May 2017, and Ban Ki-moon did not participate as a candidate. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10.00% | |
| No | 90.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 787 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1474 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
