What percentage of the vote will the Democratic candidate win in the US Senate election for New Jersey in 2024?

Started Jun 07, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Representative Andy Kim won New Jersey's Democratic Senate primary on 4 June 2024, but incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, who is under indictment for corruption, has registered to run as an independent (Politico, CNN).

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The question closed "More than 50.0% but less than 54.0%" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
50.0% or less and will not win the election 1%
50.0% or less but will win the election 1%
More than 50.0% but less than 54.0% 20%
54.0% or more 78%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 33
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 146
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.668115
3.
-0.346824
4.
-0.334695
5.
-0.29343

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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