What percentage of the vote will the Democratic candidate win in the US Senate election for New Jersey in 2024?

Started Jun 07, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Representative Andy Kim won New Jersey's Democratic Senate primary on 4 June 2024, but incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, who is under indictment for corruption, has registered to run as an independent (Politico, CNN).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
50.0% or less and will not win the election 8.00% 0% -1.00% +3.65%
50.0% or less but will win the election 18.00% +1.00% -2.00% -4.10%
More than 50.0% but less than 54.0% 37.00% -1.00% -3.00% -6.00%
54.0% or more 37.00% 0% +6.00% +6.45%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username