How many seats will the Rassemblement National (National Rally, or RN) party/alliance win in the next French National Assembly elections?

Started Jun 14, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 07, 2024 07:01AM UTC

After the RN made major gains in European Parliament elections on 9 June 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called new elections, with two rounds scheduled for 30 June and 7 July 2024 (Politico, MSN [Reuters]). If RN forms an electoral alliance as of the date of the first round of the election, seats won by that alliance would count being won by RN.

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The question closed "Fewer than 171" with a closing date of 7 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 171 7%
At least 171, but fewer than 230 45%
At least 230, but fewer than 289 47%
289 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 43
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 141
Number of Forecasts 141
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 319
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.558391
2.
-0.545023
3.
-0.43609
4.
-0.373609
5.
-0.367093

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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