How many seats will the Rassemblement National (National Rally, or RN) party/alliance win in the next French National Assembly elections?
Closed Jul 07, 2024 07:01AM UTC
After the RN made major gains in European Parliament elections on 9 June 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called new elections, with two rounds scheduled for 30 June and 7 July 2024 (Politico, MSN [Reuters]). If RN forms an electoral alliance as of the date of the first round of the election, seats won by that alliance would count being won by RN.
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The question closed "Fewer than 171" with a closing date of 7 July 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 171 | 7% | |
| At least 171, but fewer than 230 | 45% | |
| At least 230, but fewer than 289 | 47% | |
| 289 or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 43 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 141 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 527 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
