Will Joe Biden cease to be the president of the United States before 5 November 2024?

Started Jul 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

President Biden's political future hangs in the balance as his performance in the 27 June 2024 debate has raised questions about his chances to defeat Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election (CNN, AP). A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will not count (US National Archives).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 211
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 163
Number of Forecasts 685
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 429
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.00223
2.
-0.00223
3.
-0.00223
5.
-0.00223

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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