How many electoral votes will Donald Trump win in the 2024 presidential election?
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
The jurisdictions that Trump won in 2016 currently represent a total of 307 electoral votes, and the jurisdictions that he won in 2020 currently represent a total of 235 electoral votes (National Archives). The winner of the most votes in a jurisdiction will be considered to have won the electoral votes for that jurisdiction, and whether there are any "faithless electors" as part of the Electoral College in the 2024 presidential election is immaterial (Ballotpedia). If Trump ceases to be a candidate for president, his name will not be replaced in this question.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "More than 307" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 235 | 11% | |
Between 235 and 269 | 46% | |
Between 270 and 307 | 33% | |
More than 307 | 10% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 166 |
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 163 | |
Number of Forecasts | 675 |
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 429 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |