Will the Men's Marathon Swimming competition take place in the River Seine at the 2024 Olympics?

Started Jul 19, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 09, 2024 05:30AM UTC

France invested heavily to make the River Seine safe to use for certain swimming competitions, but E. coli levels remained elevated as of July 2024 (ESPN, ABC News). The men's competition is scheduled for 9 August 2024 (Olympics - Marathon Swimming Schedule). The question will close as of the event commencing with athletes swimming in the river, though the question would close early if use of the river is officially canceled or the event is postponed to a date after 11 August 2024.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 8 August 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 95%
No 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 37
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 165
Number of Forecasts 162
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 433
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.12074
3.
-0.11217
4.
-0.08767
5.
-0.08767

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username