Who will be the 2024 Democratic Party nominee for US president?

Started Jul 21, 2024 08:30PM UTC
Closed Aug 06, 2024 03:00AM UTC

On 21 July 2024, President Joe Biden announced that he would no longer seek reelection (X - Joe Biden, Politico). If no presidential candidate has been nominated by the Democratic Party before 23 August 2024, the close date will be extended.

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The question closed "Kamala Harris" with a closing date of 5 August 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Andy Beshear 0%
Pete Buttigieg 0%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Roy Cooper 0%
Kamala Harris 96%
Mark Kelly 1%
Amy Klobuchar 0%
Wes Moore 0%
Gavin Newsom 0%
Michelle Obama 0%
Jared Polis 0%
J.B. Pritzker 0%
Gina Raimondo 0%
Josh Shapiro 1%
Tim Walz 0%
Raphael Warnock 0%
Gretchen Whitmer 0%
Someone else 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 197
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 163
Number of Forecasts 344
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 429
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000627
2.
-0.000627
4.
-0.000627
5.
-0.000627

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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