What will Donald Trump's favorability rating be as of 4 October 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight?
Started
Aug 02, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 04, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Closing Oct 04, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
The question will be suspended on 3 October 2024 and the outcome determined using chart data provided on FiveThirtyEight's "Do Americans have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of the launch of this question, Trump's favorability rating on 26 July 2024 was 42.9%. The data for 4 October 2024 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 9 October 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower than 38.0% | 0% | 0% | -5.00% | -2.00% |
| At least 38.0%, but less than 40.0% | 4.00% | 0% | 0% | -4.00% |
| At least 40.0%, but less than 42.0% | 24.00% | -2.00% | -2.00% | -3.00% |
| At least 42.0%, but less than 44.0% | 58.00% | +5.00% | +11.00% | +15.00% |
| At least 44.0%, but less than 46.0% | 13.00% | +1.00% | 0% | -4.00% |
| At least 46.0%, but less than 48.0% | 1.00% | 0% | 0% | -2.00% |
| At least 48.0%, but less than 50.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 50.0%, but less than 52.0% | 0% | -2.00% | -2.00% | 0% |
| 52.0% or higher | 0% | -2.00% | -2.00% | 0% |