Who will Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elect as its next president to replace Fumio Kishida?
Started
Aug 16, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 27, 2024 06:26AM UTC
Closed Sep 27, 2024 06:26AM UTC
Challenges
Prime Minister Kishida unexpectedly announced that he would not seek reelection as the president of the LDP, which paves the way for the party to pick a new leader who will be the next presumptive prime minister (AP, NPR, ABC News).
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The question closed "Shigeru Ishiba" with a closing date of 26 September 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Shigeru Ishiba | 27% | |
| Yoko Kamikawa | 1% | |
| Katsunobu Kato | 0% | |
| Takayuki Kobayashi | 1% | |
| Shinjiro Koizumi | 26% | |
| Taro Kono | 16% | |
| Toshimitsu Motegi | 1% | |
| Sanae Takaichi | 27% | |
| Someone else | 1% | |
| The LDP will not elect a new president before 9 November 2024 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 13 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 48 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 312 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
