Will an early election or a recall referendum take place in Venezuela before 1 July 2017?

Started Dec 13, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

The political crisis in Venezuela has continued to escalate, with the opposition calling for early elections or a recall referendum (Time, Forbes , The World In 2017). President Maduro has stated that early elections are not on the table, but has agreed to participate in Vatican-sponsored negotiations with the opposition (BBC, Reuters). For more information on constitutional requirements for a recall referendum see Chapter IV, Section 2, Article 72 of Venezuela's constitution (Constitute Project). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the likelihood of Petroleos de Venezuela SA defaulting on Foreign Debt, a new president for Zimbabwe, Syrian Elections, or the outcome of the French Presidential Election.
Neither an early election or recall referendum took place in Venezuela. This question closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Question clarification
Issued on 06/15/17 08:44pm
National Constituent Assembly elections will not resolve this question as 'yes'.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 258
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 787
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.012819
2.
-0.012741
3.
-0.01262
4.
-0.012593
5.
-0.011387

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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