Will Nicolás Maduro attend the inauguration of the next Mexican president, scheduled for 1 October 2024?

Started Aug 23, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Mexico has invited Venezuelan President Maduro to attend the inauguration of Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum as Venezuela is gripped by protests and international scrutiny amid widespread claims of fraud (Pinnacle Gazette, NPR). Maduro must be physically present at the inauguration to count, which is scheduled for 1 October 2024 (AP).

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NOTE 29 August 2024: Maduro's attendance at any inauguration event in Mexico, not merely the swearing in of the new president, will count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 33
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 119
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 312
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.4441
2.
-0.441905
3.
-0.414654
4.
-0.395854
5.
-0.289577

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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