Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 20 January 2025?

Started Aug 30, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 20, 2025 08:01AM UTC

NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement, though domestic political pressures continue to threaten unity (AP, NATO). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 32 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., AP, BBC). The confrontation and fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5%
No 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 133
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 159
Number of Forecasts 358
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 421
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002748
2.
-0.002748
3.
-0.002748
4.
-0.002748
5.
-0.002748

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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