What will Kamala Harris' favorability rating be as of 3 October 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight?

Started Sep 17, 2024 08:00AM UTC
Closed Oct 03, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 2 October 2024 and the outcome determined using chart data provided on FiveThirtyEight's "Do Americans have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kamala Harris?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of the launch of this question, Harris' favorability rating on 9 September 2024 was 46.3%. The data for 3 October 2024 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 9 October 2024. Please note that data for some dates may require zooming in with your browser.

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The question closed "At least 46.0%, but less than 48.0%" with a closing date of 3 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 42.0% 1%
At least 42.0%, but less than 44.0% 4%
At least 44.0%, but less than 46.0% 7%
At least 46.0%, but less than 48.0% 70%
At least 48.0%, but less than 50.0% 15%
At least 50.0%, but less than 52.0% 2%
At least 52.0%, but less than 54.0% 1%
54.0% or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 173
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 96
Number of Forecasts 411
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 170
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.053346
3.
-0.053346
4.
-0.051413
5.
-0.050631

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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