What will be Apple's net sales in Greater China in the fourth quarter of 2024 (first quarter of Apple's fiscal year 2025)?

Started Sep 27, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Apple is facing growing competition from domestic Chinese manufacturers as the American company faces regulatory obstacles in the PRC (CNBC, Yahoo [South China Morning Post], AOL [Business Insider]). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using "Net sales" for "Greater China" data in its fiscal year 2025 first quarter report, expected in early 2025 (Apple - Investor Relations, see "Financial Data"). Apple's fiscal year ends in late September, so its fiscal year first quarter reports generally cover the fourth calendar quarter of the previous year. In the fourth quarter of 2023 (fiscal year first quarter 2024), Apple reported "Net sales" for "Greater China" of $20,819 million, or $20.819 billion (Apple - FYQ1 2024 Earnings, see page 14).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least $18.5 billion, but less than $20.0 billion" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $17.0 billion 15%
At least $17.0 billion, but less than $18.5 billion 38%
At least $18.5 billion, but less than $20.0 billion 31%
At least $20.0 billion, but less than $21.5 billion 11%
At least $21.5 billion, but less than $23.0 billion 4%
$23.0 billion or more 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 18
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 74
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.090995
2.
-0.075848
3.
-0.065767
4.
-0.064128
5.
-0.048462

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username