Will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P downgrade their long-term credit ratings for Boeing to "junk status" before 31 January 2025?

Started Oct 18, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 31, 2025 03:00PM UTC
Challenges
Tags

With a machinist strike grinding production to a halt as Boeing deals with a myriad of other problems, concerns about the long-term health of the company are running high (US News & World Report, MSN [Everett Daily Herald], Fitch Ratings, Investopedia). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Ratings). Any "Non-investment-grade" rating, often referred to as "junk," will count (Fidelity - Bond Ratings). As of 17 October 2024, the long-term credit ratings for Boeing were "BBB-" from Fitch, "Baa3" from Moody's, and "BBB-" from S&P.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 31 January 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 8%
No 92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 155
Number of Forecasts 124
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 412
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.061723
3.
-0.051784
4.
-0.045003

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username