Which album will win the 2024 Country Music Association (CMA) Award for Album of the Year?

Started Oct 24, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 20, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The 58th CMA Awards are scheduled for 20 November 2024 (CMA Awards - Nominees, CMA Awards - About).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 5 November 2024: In the event of a tie, the answer option listed first (top to bottom) among the tied nominees will be considered the winner.


The question closed "Leather (Cody Johnson)" with a closing date of 20 November 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Deeper Well (Kacey Musgraves) 12%
Fathers & Sons (Luke Combs) 20%
Higher (Chris Stapleton) 48%
Leather (Cody Johnson) 6%
Whitsitt Chapel (Jelly Roll) 15%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 11
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 133
Number of Forecasts 29
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 305
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.509711
2.
-0.204289
3.
-0.10883
4.
-0.087622
5.
-0.032963

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username