sigis asks:
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be sworn in as the US Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) before 1 May 2025?
Closed Feb 13, 2025 08:30PM UTC
President-elect Donald Trump is facing backlash over his choice to run HHS (Newsweek, The Hill, Guardian). Trump has called for the Senate to allow him to make recess appointments, which has historically been a point of friction between the White House and Senate in recent history (Newsweek, Congressional Research Service). If Trump's transition team or administration publicly announces that Trump is no longer seeking Kennedy's appointment as Secretary of Health and Human Services or Kennedy publicly announces that he is no longer seeking the job, the question will close early as "No."
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes, after having been confirmed by the US Senate" with a closing date of 13 February 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, after having been confirmed by the US Senate | 93% | |
| Yes, after a recess appointment by the president | 1% | |
| No | 6% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 77 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 155 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 343 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 412 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
