The Economist asks:

Will Min Aung Hlaing or his military successor(s) cease to be the head of government of Myanmar before 1 October 2025?

Started Nov 20, 2024 11:00AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The ruling military (Tatmadaw) government of Myanmar, which came to power in a coup in February 2021 led by current Prime Minister Min Aung Hlaing, has faced increased fighting with armed opposition groups around the country (Economist, US News & World Report, AP, Britannica - Head of Government). Whether the military junta of Myanmar names a successor or successors to Min Aung Hlaing as head of government will be determined using credible, open-source reporting. If Min Aung Hlaing (while head of government) or his military successor or successors flee Myanmar, they will be deemed to have ceased to be the head of government, and whether they have fled Myanmar will be determined using credible, open-source reporting.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 9%
No 91%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 259
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 890
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.050673
2.
-0.050673
3.
-0.050673
4.
-0.050673
5.
-0.05053

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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