The Economist asks:
How many Bundestag seats will the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) win in the 2025 German federal election?
Closed Feb 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
After the governing coalition led by the Social Democrats (SPD) collapsed, German leaders have tentatively agreed to seek a new election date in February 2025 after a planned vote of confidence in December 2024, which moves it up from the 28 September 2025 date previously announced (Economist, Politico, Deutsche Welle, Deutschland.de). In a change, there will be 630 seats up for the next Bundestag (Politico). If the election date is changed, the closing date will be adjusted accordingly.
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The question closed "Between 166 and 215" with a closing date of 23 February 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 166 | 4% | |
| Between 166 and 215 | 40% | |
| Between 216 and 265 | 50% | |
| Between 266 and 315 | 5% | |
| More than 315 | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 189 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 173 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 608 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 508 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
