The Economist asks:
How many seats will the Liberal-National Coalition (the Coalition) win in the next Australian House of Representatives elections?
Closed May 03, 2025 07:01AM UTC
While domestic issues were dominating Australian politics in October 2024, defense issues remain present (Economist, Ipsos - Issue Monitor October 2024). The next Australian House of Representatives is scheduled to take place no later than 27 September 2025, with Labor and the Coalition vying for control of a new government (Parliament of Australia, Sydney Morning Herald, The Conversation, RedBridge). The close date for this question will be changed once the official election date is set. Any by-election results will be immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
NOTE 23 November 2024: A "majority" is more than 50% of seats. A "plurality" is more seats than any other party/electoral coalition, but less than a majority.
The question closed "Neither a majority nor a plurality" with a closing date of 3 May 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
A majority | 20% | |
A plurality | 35% | |
Neither a majority nor a plurality | 45% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 168 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 176 | |
Number of Forecasts | 556 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 516 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |