The Economist asks:

How many seats will the Liberal-National Coalition (the Coalition) win in the next Australian House of Representatives elections?

Started Nov 20, 2024 11:00AM UTC
Closed May 03, 2025 07:01AM UTC

While domestic issues were dominating Australian politics in October 2024, defense issues remain present (Economist, Ipsos - Issue Monitor October 2024). The next Australian House of Representatives is scheduled to take place no later than 27 September 2025, with Labor and the Coalition vying for control of a new government (Parliament of Australia, Sydney Morning Herald, The Conversation, RedBridge). The close date for this question will be changed once the official election date is set. Any by-election results will be immaterial.

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NOTE 23 November 2024: A "majority" is more than 50% of seats. A "plurality" is more seats than any other party/electoral coalition, but less than a majority.


The question closed "Neither a majority nor a plurality" with a closing date of 3 May 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
A majority 20%
A plurality 35%
Neither a majority nor a plurality 45%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 168
Average for questions older than 6 months: 176
Number of Forecasts 556
Average for questions older than 6 months: 516
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.799859
2.
-0.795515
3.
-0.787226
4.
-0.787226
5.
-0.75702

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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