Will Pete Hegseth be sworn in as US Secretary of Defense before 1 April 2025?

Started Nov 22, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 25, 2025 03:30AM UTC

President-elect Donald Trump named Pete Hegseth, a combat-deployed National Guard major and Fox News host to be his Secretary of Defense (AP, NPR, Politico, NBC News). Trump has called for the Senate to allow him to make recess appointments, which has historically been a point of friction between the White House and Senate in recent history (Yahoo [CBC], Congressional Research Service). If Trump's transition team or administration publicly announces that Trump is no longer seeking Hegseth's appointment as Secretary of Defense or Hegseth publicly announces that he is no longer seeking the job, the question will close early as "No."

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The question closed "Yes, after having been confirmed by the US Senate" with a closing date of 24 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, after having been confirmed by the US Senate 86%
Yes, after a recess appointment by the president 5%
No 8%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 86
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 342
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.705983
2.
-0.704121
3.
-0.695354
4.
-0.695311
5.
-0.678267

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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