Will Pete Hegseth be sworn in as US Secretary of Defense before 1 April 2025?
Closed Jan 25, 2025 03:30AM UTC
President-elect Donald Trump named Pete Hegseth, a combat-deployed National Guard major and Fox News host to be his Secretary of Defense (AP, NPR, Politico, NBC News). Trump has called for the Senate to allow him to make recess appointments, which has historically been a point of friction between the White House and Senate in recent history (Yahoo [CBC], Congressional Research Service). If Trump's transition team or administration publicly announces that Trump is no longer seeking Hegseth's appointment as Secretary of Defense or Hegseth publicly announces that he is no longer seeking the job, the question will close early as "No."
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The question closed "Yes, after having been confirmed by the US Senate" with a closing date of 24 January 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, after having been confirmed by the US Senate | 86% | |
| Yes, after a recess appointment by the president | 5% | |
| No | 8% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 86 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 342 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |