Will SpaceX successfully catch a Starship rocket before 1 July 2025?

Started Nov 22, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
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After a successful launch and controlled ocean landings executed on 19 November 2024, SpaceX is expected to eventually attempt to "catch" the Starship vessel itself after another successful flight (USA Today, WCCF Tech, Payload). A catch will be considered successful upon the ship being "caught" as intended after a space flight reaching an altitude of at least 100 km (Britannica - Karman Line, X - Elon Musk). A capture of the booster alone will not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 216
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.609485
2.
-0.603098
3.
-0.484366
4.
-0.474719
5.
-0.447216

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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