The Economist asks:

Who will win the 2025 Polish presidential election?

Started Dec 20, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Poland is scheduled to hold a presidential election in 2025, with incumbent Andrzej Duda term-limited (Economist, Euractiv, AP). An independent endorsed by a political party counts as a candidate of that political party. If a named candidate is replaced by his party, the answer option for that party will be updated. The next Polish presidential election is expected in May 2025, with a second round 14 days later if no person receives an absolute majority in the first round (Constitution of Poland, see Article 127(4)). The close date for this question will be changed once the official election dates are set.

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The question closed "Karol Nawrocki (Law and Justice)" with a closing date of 1 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Szymon Hołownia (Poland 2050) 0%
Sławomir Mentzen (Confederation Liberty and Independence, sometimes translated "Confederation Freedom and Independence") 1%
Karol Nawrocki (Law and Justice) 33%
Rafał Trzaskowski (Civic Coalition) 66%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 175
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 688
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.903831
2.
-0.833886
4.
-0.651613
5.
-0.649197

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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