The Economist asks:

What will be Starbucks' revenues in China for the second quarter of 2025 (third quarter of Starbucks' fiscal year 2025)?

Started Dec 20, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Starbucks has faced challenges in China, and the coffee company is taking new steps to improve its business in the country (Economist, CNBC, Yahoo [Fortune], Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 and the outcome determined using "Revenues" data under "China Supplemental Data" in its fiscal year 2025 third quarter report, expected in late July or early August of 2025 (Starbucks - Quarterly Results and Data, see "Earnings Release"). Starbucks' fiscal year ends in late September, so its fiscal year third quarter reports generally cover the second calendar quarter of the year. In the second quarter of 2024 (fiscal year third quarter 2024), Starbucks reported "Revenues" in China of $733.8 million, down from $821.9 million in the same quarter in 2023 (Q3 Fiscal 2024 Results, see page 14).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least $790.0 million, but less than $855.0 million" with a closing date of 29 July 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $660.0 million 17%
At least $660.0 million, but less than $725.0 million 40%
At least $725.0 million, but less than $790.0 million 33%
At least $790.0 million, but less than $855.0 million 6%
At least $855.0 million, but less than $920.0 million 2%
$920.0 million or more 1%
Starbucks will not report revenues in China for the quarter 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 167
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 546
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.00812
2.
-0.860645
4.
-0.67064
5.
-0.662184

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username