What will be Apple's net sales in Greater China in the third quarter of 2025 (fourth quarter of Apple's fiscal year 2025)?

Started Jan 03, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Growing competition from Chinese domestic manufacturers like Huawei has hit Apple's revenues in Greater China as tensions between the US and China simmer (Yahoo [Bloomberg], US News & World Report, Yahoo [GuruFocus]). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2025 and the outcome determined using "Net sales" for "Greater China" data in its fiscal year fourth quarter financial statements, expected in late October or early November 2025 (Apple - Investor Relations, see "Financial Data"). Apple's fiscal year ends in late September, so its fourth quarter reports generally cover the third calendar quarter of the year. In the third quarter of 2024 (fourth quarter fiscal year), Apple reported "Net sales" for "Greater China" of $15,033 million (Apple - FYQ4 2024 Financial Statements, see page 1, which is linked in Apple's fiscal year fourth quarter press release Apple - FYQ4 2024 Press Release , Yahoo [South China Morning Post]).

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The question closed "At least $14 billion, but less than $15 billion" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $12 billion 9%
At least $12 billion, but less than $13 billion 3%
At least $13 billion, but less than $14 billion 7%
At least $14 billion, but less than $15 billion 24%
At least $15 billion, but less than $16 billion 29%
At least $16 billion, but less than $17 billion 12%
$17 billion or more 16%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 27
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 57
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.130094
2.
-0.093838
3.
-0.078291
4.
-0.058416
5.
-0.0577

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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