When will the four-week average of US field production of crude oil reach or exceed 14 million barrels per day (b/d)?
Closed Dec 27, 2025 08:01AM UTC
As the US continues to produce crude oil at record levels, Donald Trump is expected to push for greater production in his second term (US News & World Report, Yahoo [Bloomberg], EIA - Short-Term Energy Outlook December 2024). The outcome will be determined using the "4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day by week "End Date") as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA).
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The question closed "Not before 27 December 2025" with a closing date of 27 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 25 April 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 25 April 2025 and 22 August 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 23 August 2025 and 26 December 2024 | 3% | |
| Not before 27 December 2025 | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 19 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 156 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 111 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 464 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |