When will the four-week average of US field production of crude oil reach or exceed 14 million barrels per day (b/d)?

Started Jan 03, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 27, 2025 08:01AM UTC
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As the US continues to produce crude oil at record levels, Donald Trump is expected to push for greater production in his second term (US News & World Report, Yahoo [Bloomberg], EIA - Short-Term Energy Outlook December 2024). The outcome will be determined using the "4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day by week "End Date") as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA).

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The question closed "Not before 27 December 2025" with a closing date of 27 December 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 25 April 2025 0%
Between 25 April 2025 and 22 August 2025 0%
Between 23 August 2025 and 26 December 2024 3%
Not before 27 December 2025 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 156
Number of Forecasts 111
Average for questions older than 6 months: 464
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.172939
2.
-0.103932
3.
-0.073539
4.
-0.065225
5.
-0.055238

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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