In US v. Google, will the US trial court order a structural reorganization and/or a forced divestiture of any of Google's business lines or products before 13 December 2025?

Started Jan 10, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 02, 2025 08:32PM UTC
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On 5 August 2024, Judge Amit Mehta of the US District Court for the District of Columbia ruled that, among other things, Google, LLC, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc, "is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly" with regard to web searching in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act (AP, US v. Google - Memorandum Opinion 5 August 2024). The next stage of the litigation is the remedies trial, where the plaintiffs will request actions by the court they think are necessary to address the finding that Google is a monopoly (The Verge, Newsweek). As of the launch of this question, the Justice Department was asking the court to impose structural remedies, such as breaking the company up into two or more firms and/or forcing Google to divest some of its business lines or products (e.g., Chrome web browser, Android operating system) (AP, US v. Google - Plantiffs' Initial Proposed Final Judgment 20 November 2024). The outcome will be determined based on final judgments and orders entered by the court and open-source reporting on actions. Any subsequent appeals are immaterial. A judgment or order including only structural relief contingent upon future events and findings alone will not count (e.g., US v. Google - Plantiffs' Initial Proposed Final Judgment 20 November 2024, see Section V(D) on page 11). For an historic example, see the order and final judgment from trial court in US v. Microsoft, in which the judge ordered a structural reorganization (i.e., a breakup), which was later reversed on appeal (US v. Microsoft - Memorandum and Order 7 June 2000, Politico). 

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NOTE 5 May 2025: This question is only concerned with the outcome of Google's trial as to online search, and proceedings in the Eastern District of Virginia related to its advertising business are immaterial (Tech Policy Press).


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 2 September 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 37%
No 63%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 32
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 126
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.301127
3.
-0.293627
4.
-0.292138
5.
-0.289008

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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