Who will win the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?

Started Jan 17, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 19, 2025 07:01AM UTC

While incumbent President Luis Arce had not announced his intent to run for reelection as of the beginning of 2025, he is expected to run amid fighting within his Movement for Socialism (MAS) party over the fate of former President Evo Morales and general civil unrest (The Dialogue, France 24, Yahoo [Reuters], AP, La Razón [in Spanish]). The 2025 Bolivian general election is scheduled for 17 August 2025, with a runoff scheduled for 19 October 2025 if needed (AS/COA). If there is ambiguity in the result, the outcome will be determined based on the results as certified by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (e.g., BBC). If all voting in the presidential election (both rounds) is not completed and the outcome not known before 1 January 2026, the question will close "Another outcome."

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The question closed "Another candidate" with a closing date of 19 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Luis Arce 2%
Luis Fernando Camacho 2%
Samuel Doria Medina 2%
Carlos Mesa 1%
Evo Morales 1%
Jorge Quiroga 29%
Manfred Reyes Villa  0%
Andrónico Rodríguez 0%
Another candidate 61%
Another outcome 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 52
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 142
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.413654
2.
-0.240935
3.
-0.207417
4.
-0.163084
5.
-0.162261

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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