Who will win the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?
Closed Oct 19, 2025 07:01AM UTC
While incumbent President Luis Arce had not announced his intent to run for reelection as of the beginning of 2025, he is expected to run amid fighting within his Movement for Socialism (MAS) party over the fate of former President Evo Morales and general civil unrest (The Dialogue, France 24, Yahoo [Reuters], AP, La Razón [in Spanish]). The 2025 Bolivian general election is scheduled for 17 August 2025, with a runoff scheduled for 19 October 2025 if needed (AS/COA). If there is ambiguity in the result, the outcome will be determined based on the results as certified by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (e.g., BBC). If all voting in the presidential election (both rounds) is not completed and the outcome not known before 1 January 2026, the question will close "Another outcome."
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The question closed "Another candidate" with a closing date of 19 October 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arce | 2% | |
| Luis Fernando Camacho | 2% | |
| Samuel Doria Medina | 2% | |
| Carlos Mesa | 1% | |
| Evo Morales | 1% | |
| Jorge Quiroga | 29% | |
| Manfred Reyes Villa | 0% | |
| Andrónico Rodríguez | 0% | |
| Another candidate | 61% | |
| Another outcome | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 52 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 142 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |