Which film will win the 2025 Oscar for Best Picture?

Started Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 02, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The 97th Academy Awards, known as the Oscars, are scheduled for 2 March 2025 (Oscars, NPR). In the event of a tie, the film with the higher box office total through and including 2 March 2025 according to Box Office Mojo would be deemed the winner.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Anora" with a closing date of 2 March 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Anora 58%
The Brutalist 12%
A Complete Unknown 3%
Conclave 24%
Dune: Part Two 0%
Emilia Pérez 1%
I'm Still Here 0%
Nickel Boys 0%
The Substance 0%
Wicked 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 43
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 127
Number of Forecasts 143
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 292
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.40805
2.
-0.272082
3.
-0.231487
4.
-0.215376
5.
-0.199555

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username