Which song will win the 2025 Oscar for Best Original Song?

Started Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 02, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The 97th Academy Awards, known as the Oscars, are scheduled for 2 March 2025 (Oscars, NPR). In the event of a tie, the film with the higher box office total through and including 2 March 2025 according to Box Office Mojo would be deemed the winner.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed ""El Mal" (Emilia Pérez)" with a closing date of 2 March 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
"El Mal" (Emilia Pérez) 79%
"The Journey" (The Six Triple Eight) 10%
"Like A Bird" (Sing Sing) 2%
"Mi Camino" (Emilia Pérez) 6%
"Never Too Late" (Elton John: Never Too Late) 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 149
Number of Forecasts 62
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 398
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.069368
2.
-0.066911
3.
-0.060042
5.
-0.024097

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username