The Economist asks:

Will Royal Assent be given to UK and/or Scottish parliamentary legislation legalizing or decriminalizing assisted dying before 1 October 2025?

Started Jan 24, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Right-to-die advocates in the UK continue to push for the legalization of euthanasia, assisted dying and/or assisted suicide (Economist, UK Parliament - Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill, CARE, Scottish Parliament - Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill, Royal College of Nursing, UK Parliament - Royal Assent). The date the legislation would take effect is immaterial, and limits on who may assist (e.g., doctors) or who may seek assistance (e.g., terminally ill patients) is immaterial. For the purposes of this question, euthanasia and assisted suicide are considered "assisted dying."

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, only to UK parliamentary legislation 1%
Yes, only to Scottish parliamentary legislation 1%
Yes, both 1%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 121
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 609
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.176585
2.
-0.176585
3.
-0.147484
4.
-0.144664
5.
-0.129966

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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