What will be the "natural growth rate" of the population of China in 2025?

Started Jan 24, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

China reported a negative natural growth rate for the third straight year in 2024 as the country deals with the demographic consequences of, among other things, its now-scrapped One-Child Policy (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-sees-a-fresh-decline-in-population-despite-a-rise-in-births/ar-AA1xlGxF, https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202501/t20250117_1958330.html). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using natural growth rate (i.e., the birth rate minus the death rate over a given period) data as published by the Chinese government for 2025, expected in early 2026. Because your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics website, we have included the birth rate, death rate, and natural growth rate for the past eleven years:

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The question closed "Lower than -2.00" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than -2.00 13%
At least -2.00, but lower than -1.50 7%
At least -1.50, but lower than -1.00 39%
At least -1.00, but lower than -0.50 24%
At least -0.50, but lower than 0.00 15%
At least 0.00, but lower than 0.50 2%
0.50 or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 120
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.306426
2.
-0.260607
3.
-0.239687
4.
-0.234369
5.
-0.190356

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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