Between 28 January 2025 and 30 April 2025, how many total fatalities will occur in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) provinces of Nord-Kivu and Sud-Kivu due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?

Started Jan 27, 2025 10:30PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Fighting in the mineral-rich province of Nord-Kivu flared up in January 2025, leading the DRC to sever diplomatic ties with neighboring Rwanda, which it and others accuse of aiding the rebel group M23 (AP, Al Jazeera, Deutsche Welle, United Nations). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Explorer (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) select "Fatality Counts," (2) select "All Event Types," (3) select "Custom Date Range" and set the date range as appropriate, (4) select only "Africa," (5) select only "Democratic Republic of Congo," (6) select "Yes," which will present a drop-down menu from which you will select "Nord-Kivu" and "Sud-Kivu," (7) select "Admin1," (8) select "No," (9) select "No," (10) select "Yes" and choose "Month," and click "Run Calculations." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 423 total fatalities in Nord-Kivu and Sud-Kivu due to conflicts and protests from 1 February through 30 April 2024. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 16 May 2025, unless ACLED reports fatalities in excess of 5,400 before 16 May 2025.

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The question closed "At least 1,200, but fewer than 1,600" with a closing date of 1 May 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 400 1%
At least 400, but fewer than 800 5%
At least 800, but fewer than 1,200 4%
At least 1,200, but fewer than 1,600 78%
At least 1,600, but fewer than 2,400 1%
At least 2,400, but fewer than 3,600 0%
At least 3,600, but fewer than 5,400 1%
5,400 or more 10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 28
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 148
Number of Forecasts 151
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 396
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.256826
2.
-0.214613
3.
-0.187987
4.
-0.151589
5.
-0.137599

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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