Closing Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 1 January 2018?

Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (Economist, NATO, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). Article 5 has been invoked once, by the United States in response to a terrorist attack in 2001 (NATO).

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Name Probability
Yes 19%

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