What will be the price for cocoa per metric ton in June 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)?

Started Feb 26, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Cocoa prices began to fall from record highs set in December 2024 as concerns about tight supply gave way to concerns about falling demand (Yahoo [Bloomberg], Bilyonaryo). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 and the outcome determined using IMF price data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). In June 2024, the price of cocoa per metric ton was $8,380.12661.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least $8,400.00, but less than $9,000.00" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $4,800.00 0%
At least $4,800.00, but less than $5,400.00 0%
At least $5,400.00, but less than $6,000.00 0%
At least $6,000.00, but less than $6,600.00 0%
At least $6,600.00, but less than $7,200.00 0%
At least $7,200.00, but less than $7,800.00 4%
At least $7,800.00, but less than $8,400.00 16%
At least $8,400.00, but less than $9,000.00 51%
At least $9,000.00, but less than $9,600.00 27%
At least $9,600.00, but less than $10,200.00 2%
$10,200.00 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 44
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 246
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.091213
2.
-0.08622
4.
-0.059281
5.
-0.052435

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username