Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen before 1 January 2026?

Started Mar 07, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

Millions of Yemenis continue to face potential famine as drought, broadening conflict, and other factors continue (BBC, Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor, Reliefweb, World Food Programme). For general information on how famines are declared, see: BBC, NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration will not count (e.g., CBS News).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 11%
No 89%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 156
Number of Forecasts 124
Average for questions older than 6 months: 464
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.052539
2.
-0.052539
3.
-0.052539
4.
-0.052431
5.
-0.052281

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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