Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Sudan before 1 January 2026?

Started Mar 07, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC

Conditions in Sudan have deteriorated as a civil war that began in April 2023 rages on, and millions of people are displaced within the country (AP, Al Jazeera, World Food Programme). For general information on how famines are declared, see: BBC, NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration will not count (e.g., CBS News).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 4 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 30%
No 70%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 140
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.070732
2.
-1.051911
3.
-1.050622
4.
-1.027022
5.
-1.02629

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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