Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Sudan before 1 January 2026?
Started
Mar 07, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Challenges
Conditions in Sudan have deteriorated as a civil war that began in April 2023 rages on, and millions of people are displaced within the country (AP, Al Jazeera, World Food Programme). For general information on how famines are declared, see: BBC, NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration will not count (e.g., CBS News).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 4 November 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | |
| No | 70% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 47 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 140 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |