What percentage of the area in the US Midwest states will be in severe (D2), extreme (D3), or exceptional (D4) drought as of 5 August 2025, according to the US Drought Monitor?
Closed Aug 05, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The US Midwest (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin) produces large amounts of corn, soybeans, and other crops (FarmProgress). The question will be suspended on 4 August 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Drought Monitor, expected to be released on 7 August 2025 with data valid as of 5 August 2025 (US Drought Monitor, see the "D2-D4" column with "Area type" set to "Geographic Regions," "Area" set to "Midwest," and "Statistics type" set to “Cumulative Percent Area”). As of 18 February 2025, 2.46% of the area in US Midwest states was in severe, extreme, or exceptional drought. If a 5 August 2025 valid data date is not reported, the first valid date in August 2025 will be used for resolution.
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The question closed "Less than 8.0%" with a closing date of 5 August 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 8.0% | 86% | |
| At least 8.0%, but less than 16.0% | 10% | |
| At least 16.0%, but less than 24.0% | 1% | |
| At least 24.0%, but less than 32.0% | 1% | |
| At least 32.0%, but less than 40.0% | 1% | |
| At least 40.0%, but less than 48.0% | 1% | |
| 48.0% or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 17 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 87 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
